The invisible hand manipulating coffee prices

Down to the lowest point in the past three years, coffee prices have never plummeted as sharply as they do now. Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing the risk of “collapse” due to an “invisible hand.”

This is the reality of Vietnam’s coffee sector that even insiders find hard to explain, especially since just one year ago, coffee prices remained stable at high levels, and for three consecutive years, the domestic coffee industry maintained good prices.

Mr. Đỗ Hà Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa), said that although the 2012–2013 crop season has just ended, those working in the coffee industry feel more sorrow than joy. “Last year, coffee led in export value compared to other agricultural products. For three years, prices remained good. This year, we’ve let go,” Mr. Nam bitterly remarked.

In reality, coffee producers are suffering heavy losses. Specifically, the production cost per hectare of coffee reaches 75 million VND, with an average yield of only 2.4 tons per hectare, while the current selling price for bulk coffee beans is about 30,000 VND/kg (compared to a peak price of 44,200 VND/kg in March and April 2013).

Accordingly, the FOB price at Ho Chi Minh City port has also dropped to just over 1,500 USD/ton — the lowest level in the past three years.

Who is manipulating this?

This question must be raised because there are too many contradictions that related organizations and individuals cannot explain or deliberately ignore, and it cannot be ruled out that speculation and price manipulation are occurring.

In Brazil, the Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that coffee production for the 2013–2014 crop will reach only 47.5 million bags, down 6.5% compared to the 2012–2013 crop due to bad weather. Currently, Brazil has about 2 million hectares of coffee under harvest with an average yield of 1.4 tons/ha (much lower than Vietnam’s yield of 2.4 tons/ha).

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, domestic coffee consumption has increased, leading to a reduction in export volume.

Vietnam, as the world’s second largest coffee exporter and one of the five countries severely affected by climate change, has about 40,000 hectares of coffee plantations damaged by pests and diseases, with around 5,000 hectares completely lost. Additionally, 30% of coffee plantations are old and low-yielding, causing a sharp decline in domestic coffee output.

At the same time, global coffee consumption increased by an average of 2.4% during 2010–2012. In 2012 alone, consumption grew by 2.1%. Domestic consumption in traditional markets reached 71.4 million bags, up 1% compared to the previous year.

In the U.S., total coffee consumption in 2012 increased by 7%, a relatively high growth compared to 3.9% in 2010 and 2011. Particularly, Australia’s domestic consumption rose by 15.9% in 2012, and Spain by 9.1% compared to 2011.

From these analyses, it is clear that the production of major coffee-exporting countries tends to decline, while global and domestic demand continues to rise. So why have coffee prices dropped so drastically? This contradiction is glaring and needs to be clarified.

In principle, raw coffee prices are currently low, so buying would benefit businesses. However, many processing and export companies say that although prices are falling sharply, they dare not increase purchases now for fear prices will fall further. At this rate, coffee producers are “dying before they can even gasp.”

Experts clearly indicate that there is price manipulation by speculators. “If this problem is not thoroughly addressed, Vietnam’s coffee industry risks being crushed,” warned one expert.

VAT causing difficulties for businesses

Since June 2013, changes to the VAT refund process according to Decision No. 7527/BTC-TCT have caused many coffee export businesses not to receive VAT refunds, causing bottlenecks and forcing many companies to temporarily stop trading. The reason is that the profit margin for exporters is only 2–3%, and if the 5% VAT refund is not granted, they will suffer heavy losses.

Meanwhile, the EU is currently Vietnam’s largest importer of raw coffee, accounting for up to 70% of export volume. If Vietnam does not resolve the VAT issue before the 2013–2014 crop season, the EU market may shift to Brazil, India, Indonesia, and thus Vietnam risks losing its export market.

To resolve this, Mr. Lương Văn Tự, Chairman of Vicofa, affirmed: “We support strict handling of tax evading enterprises that disrupt the market.”

According to Mr. Tự, recent actions by authorities “have missed the mark; many tax evaders remain unpunished, while serious businesses that buy from suppliers with proper invoices are denied VAT refunds.”

“We propose the Ministry of Finance cancel Decision 7527 by the General Department of Taxation and, in the long term, abolish VAT for coffee processing-export enterprises,” Mr. Lương Văn Tự suggested.

However, there are opinions that VAT should not be abolished yet to avoid affecting the state budget. For now, authorities, especially the Ministry of Public Security, must thoroughly handle unscrupulous actors who evade taxes and destabilize the industry. Also, review and adjust foreign companies buying domestic coffee without paying VAT.

According to Vicofa, the coffee import market for Vietnam this crop season has seen a “change of guard.” Germany surpassed the U.S. (which held 8% market share) to become Vietnam’s largest coffee import market (10% market share).

In the 2012–2013 crop, Vietnam exported 19 million bags, down 10.5% compared to the previous crop. In the first month of the 2013–2014 crop season (October 2013), Vietnam exported an estimated 58,000 tons, with a turnover of 119 million USD, down 8.7% in volume and 12.4% in value compared to the previous month.

Accordingly, the cumulative coffee export in the first 10 months of 2013 is estimated at 1.09 million tons worth 2.33 billion USD, down 24.6% in volume and 24.4% in value compared to the same period in 2012.

The 2013–2014 crop is forecast to see Vietnam’s coffee output decline by about 15% compared to the previous crop due to weather impacts. Europe remains Vietnam’s top coffee export market.

To maintain coffee prices beneficial to Vietnam, experts suggest increasing stockpiles to 300,000–500,000 tons instead of the current 200,000 tons and extending the storage period to 6 months.

Source: Collected.